Will the Mariners' open up their check book this offseason to build a championship team and bring a World Series to the Pacific Northwest?
Let's hear from the CEO and co-owner, John Stanton.
"The Mariners will need to innovate and create unforgettable experiences at Mariners games that translate into revenue, and revenue that translates into resources that allow us to build championship teams."
Stanton’s expectation for the club is to generate north of $400 million in annual revenue, and he has confidence that President of Business Operations Catie Griggs, recently hired in 2021, will do just that.
Under her leadership with Atlanta United FC, Catie increased revenue by +$31 million from $47 million in 2017 to $78 million in 2018 in her first year.
Atlanta led the league in attendance in 2017, averaging more than 40,000 fans per game, and in 2022, the franchise continues to lead the MLS in average attendance with 47,116 fans per game.
The Mariners nearly doubled their attendance to 2.3 million from 1,15 million in the prior season and may have generated more than $360 million in 2022, could generate $380 million in 2023, and $400 million or more by 2024, allowing ownership to justify a $175 million to $200 million dollar championship payroll.
The Seattle Mariners' path to generating $400 million in annual revenue!
According to Stanton's $400 million target and Grigg's plan to elevate the fan experience, the M's may have a path to generate upwards of $3.2 billion in the next 8 seasons, allowing the team to sign a Tier 1 SS in free agency for $35 million AAV.
Since the 2020 and 2021 seasons were during the pandemic, I took the average between 2018 and 2019 to arrive at $158 in average revenue per ticket sold in 2022 and used those metrics to model the projections for 8 seasons 2023–2030.
Historical Revenue (2018-2022) | 2018 | 2019 | 2021 | 2022* |
Avg. Attendance | 28.3K | 22.1K | 15.k | 28.5K* |
Season Attendance | 2.3M | 1.8M | 1.2M | 2.3M* |
Avg. Revenue per Ticket Sold | $138 | $178 | $259 | $158* |
Total Revenue | $318M | $319M | $315M | $360M* |
Revenue Projections (2023-2026) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
Avg. Attendance | 29.5K | 31K | 31.5K | 32K |
Season Attendance | 2.3M | 2.5M | 2.5M | 2.6M |
Avg. Revenue per Ticket Sold | $160 | $161 | $162 | $163 |
Projected Revenue | $382M | $404M | $413M | $422M |
Revenue Projectons (2027-2030) | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
Avg. Attendance | 32.5K | 33K | 33.5K | 34K |
Season Attendance | 2.6M | 2.6M | 2.7M | 2.7M |
Avg. Revenue per Ticket Sold | $164 | $165 | $166 | $167 |
Projected Revenue | $431M | $441M | $450M | $460M |
Taking a page out of Atlanta's Championship playbook.
The Braves went from 5th in their division and 22nd in attendance in 2016 to 1st place in their division, 2nd in attendance, and winning a World Series while generating over $440 million in revenue in 2021.
Attendance Ranking:
2017: #13 (2.5 million)
2018: #12
2019: #12
2021: #2
2022: #4 (3.1 million)
It began with the addition of the core foundation of Fried, Swanson, and Olson in 2017, Acuna and Wright in 2018, and Riley in 2019. followed by Michael Harris in 2022.
Braves Core Players:
Fried, 17’
Swanson, 17’
Olson, 17’
Acuna, 18’
Wright, 18’
Riley, 19'
The Padres are another mid-market team that improved from fourth in their division and 18th in attendance in 2017 to second in their division and top five in attendance while defeating the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS in 2022.
Attendance Ranking:
2017: #18 (2.1 million)
2018: #18
2019: #14
2021: #3
2022: #5 (3 million)
It began with the core foundation of adding Machado in 2018, Tatis Jr. in 2019. However, their attendance did not jump in the top #5 until 2021 with the additions of Musgrove and Darvish, followed by a blockbuster trade to bring Juan Soto to the San Diego Padres in 2022.
Padres Core Players:
Machado, 18’
Fernando Tatis Jr., 19'
Musgrove, 21'
Darvish, 21'
Soto - 22’
The Mariners are on a similar trajectory as the Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres. They currently rank #15 in attendance and if they sign a Tier 1 SS in free agency, and are able to build on top of the 2022 attendance of 2.3 million, they may catapult into the top 10 in MLB attendance by 2024.
In 2001, the Mariner's historic 116-win season, the team generated over 3,5 million in season attendance.
Attendance Ranking:
2017: #19 (2.1 million)
2018: #14
2019: #20
2021: #20
2022: #15 (2.3 million)
Seattle is taking a page out of the Atlanta Braves' playbook with a 4-year roadmap to a World Series through the core additions of foundational players in Julio Rodriguez, Robbie Ray, Luis Castillo, Eugenio Suarez, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby in the past 2 seasons.
Mariners Core Players:
Gilbert, 21’
Rodriguez, 22'
Robbie, 22’
Castillo, 22’
Eugenio, 22
Kirby, 22’
The Mariners' path to signing a $275 million superstar shortstop!
The Mariners cut -$18.5 million in retained salaries from their 2022 payroll with only Cano's contract remaining until 2024. If we account for Haniger's -$19.5 million qualifying offer the M's did not extend, and are able to move Marco, Flexen and /or Winker -$23M this offseason, the M's should have a minimum of $61+ million they could allocate toward the free agency and trade markets to land a Tier 1SS.
Julio's and Castillo's team friendly base salary in 2023. gives additional payroll flexibility to also add (2) veteran OF/DH players on 1-2 year deals between $10- $15 million AAV.
As of November, 2022, the Mariners currently have $500 million in future commitments, and by adding a Tier 1 shortstop's $275 million contract, we have a committed future payroll of $775 million of core players until 2026.
Player | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Julio Rodriguez | $5,9M | $11.9M | $19.9M | $19.9M |
Robbie Ray | $21M | $23M | $25M | $25M |
Luis Castillo | $11.4M | $24M | $24M | $24M |
J.P. Crawford | $11M | $11M | $11M | $12M |
Eugenio Suarez | $11.2M | $11.2M | $15M | |
Evan White | $3M | $7M | $8M | |
Andres Munoz | $1.7M | $2.2M | $2.7M | |
2023 FA + Trade | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
Trea or Carlos | $30M | $30M | $32,5M | 37.5M |
Teoscar Hernandez | $15M | | | |
Conforto, Brantley, JD or Abreu | $15M | | | |
Elvis Andrus | $5M | | | |
Marco Gonzalez | -$6.5M | | | |
Chris Flexen | -$8M | | | |
Jesse Winker | -$8.25M | | | |
Arbitration Salary (Projected) | $31M | $35M | $45M | $60M |
Retained Salary | $3.75M | | | |
Future FA Signings (2025+) | | | $15M | $15M |
Projected Payroll | $165M | $157M | $197M | $195M |
The Seattle Mariners have (two) 4 season windows to win a championship. 2023-2026 and 2027-2030, aligned with the 8 year commitment needed to sign a Trea Turner or Carlos Correa; with most contracts coming off the books in 2027, making room for the next wave of prospects like Harry Ford, Emerson Hancock, Bryce Miller, Gabriel Gonzalez and Cole Young.
Future Annual Commitments
$90M committed to Julio, Trea, and Luis from 2026-2028
Julio and Castillo's base salary increases +$24 million in 2025
Cano's retained salary comes off the books in 2024. -$3.75M
Contracts coming off the books by 2026-2027.
Evan White, Eugenio Suarez, Robbie Ray, and JP Crawford -$60M
Pre-Arb Bonus Pool + Arb-1-3 Players 2025-2028
Logan Gilbert and Cal Raleigh are set for Arb 1 in 2025
Diego Castillo is a FA in 2025
Ty France and Erik Swanson are FA's in 2026
The young core is set for pre-arb around 2024-25
Pre-arb bonus pool will naturally inflate payroll over the years
Who will the Seattle Mariner's target this offseason?
Jerry Dipoto stated that the M's are specifically seeking "impact players" and the corner outfield is the best place to find value. The bottom of Tier 2 and Tier 3 OF/DH on the free agent and trade markets are very unlikely targets as we already have Kellenic, Winker, Sam, Dylan, and Kyle that fill that role.
To clarify, I don't see the front office making any 4-6 year, $100M+ offers to Tier 2 OF players like Nimmo or Andrew instead I see them going after players with similar AAV on short term 1-2 year deals.
The Mariners 1st move!
OF/DH Trade Options
(Putting my GM hat on) I would trade Marco for Hunter Renfroe, and /or Chris Flexen + Jesse Winker for Teoscar Hernandez. Both can play everyday at RF and DH giving the M's more flexibility to find a OF/DH bat via FA.
Trade: SP Flexen and maybe (Winker or Prospect) for either RF Renfroe, or Teoscar: $15M
Trade: SP Marco for a Left Handed reliever or M's could look at signing Brad Hand. $5M
Teoscar Hernandez is preferred and ideal, the M's thrive in controlling the strike zone and get on base on a higher clip then any other team in the league (2nd/walks) and need a power bat like to bring Julio, Ty, Eugenio home with a swing of the bat.
Hunter Renfroe is the most likely trade scenario, as Hunter is being shopped around; and especially if the Brewers have already inquired about Flexen, which most teams have, then this trade makes sense. He is in his last year of arbitration, and can be an impact bat, play everyday and make an immediate contribution to the lineup; while being an insurance if Jesse and JK has a down year or does not pan out.
Bryan Reynolds name has come up frequently in the past year, but nothing transpires.
The Mariners 2nd move!
Tier 1: SS, Trea Turner, Carlos Correra, Xander Boergarts, Dansby: $28M-$35M
Plan B and tier 2 options have value as well (value is weighted towards short term flexible deals) and production is not far off from Tier 1 SS, so players like Gleyber Torres or even Wong (packaged w/ Renfroe) makes a lot of sense and gives the Mariners short term flexibility as their payroll will inflate +$25M by 2025 with current contracts alone, so let's keep that in mind.
The Mariners 3rd move!
Upgrade via Free Agency
I believe signing a OF in FA may be the 3rd move the Mariners make, so whether value is weighted towards power hitters like Conforto / J.D. or contact hitters like Brantley / Abreu will be dependent on who they trade for in RF and sign as their 2B/SS.
I expect there to be an array of 1-year "prove it" deals via the 2023 MLB free agency market, especially with the no shift rule and left-handed batters betting on themselves to have a breakout season and cash in on the following year.
Michael Conforto and Michael Brantley are both Seattle natives and either signings on prove it deals makes sense.
If the M's secure an everyday RF (Renfroe/Teoscar) adding a veteran DH bat like J.D. or Abreu makes sense here as well (we saw a glimpse of what this would look like with Carlos Santana in 2022).
Tier 2: OF, Michael Conforto, Michael Brantley, Masataka Yoshida, JD Martinez: $15M
Wild Card Signings
Elvis Andrus had a .400 batting average, 8 hits, 4 HR, 5 RBI, and 6 runs in 20 at-bats spread evenly across 6 games at T-Mobile Park in 2022. He also has a .290 career batting average against the Astros and can play multiple infield positions as an impact utility player and pinch hitter off the bench.
This is my sleeper signing and may return the best short-term ROI in terms of AAV.
“I don't know, man,” Andrus said when asked to explain what on earth is going on that has allowed this strange occurrence to take place at T-Mobile Park.
“Lately, I like hitting here for some reason, especially this year. I don't know. I don't know what it is. Probably the batter’s eye being very dark? It’s something that I haven't done in my whole career in Seattle, so I think that it’s kind of making up for my first eight years.”
Brad Hand would be a wild-card signing but could bring a much-needed left-handed reliever to the bullpen, and is coming off a 2.80 ERA in his 2022 campaign. The M's could also explore moving SP Marco Gonzalez for a left-handed reliever in the trade market as well.
Potential Lineup #1: $170M
Imagine being a pitcher and having to face Trea, Julio, followed by power bats in Eugenio and Teoscar, then potentially facing (3) left handed bats in a row with Conforto, Cal, and Kellenic. Servais is going to have a fields day and will be playing chess against checker players with potential matchup nightmares up and down the lineup.
SS: Trea Turner (.302, 20 HR, 86 RBI)
1B: Ty France (.282; 22 HR; 80 RBI)
CF: Julio Rodriguez (.295, 32 HR, 95 RBI)
3B: Eugenio Suarez (.234, 33 HR, 91 RBI)
RF: Teoscar Hernandez (.280, 25 HR, 82 RBI)
DH: Michael Conforto (.262, 22 HR, 75 RBI)
C: Cal Raleigh (.215, 28 HR, 77 RBI)
LF: Jarred Kellenic (.251, 18 HR, 64 RBI)
2B: J.P. Crawford (.265, 8 HR, 48 RBI)
M’s Bench
LF/DH Jesse Winker
OF/DH Sam Haggerty
UTL Abraham Toro
UTL: Dylan Moore
C: Tom Murphy
Pitching Rotation
Ace: Luis Castillo
02: Robbie Ray
03: George Kirby
04: Logan Gilbert
05: Emerson Hancock
Relievers:
CL: Paul Sewald
SU8 Andres Munoz
SU7 Casey Sadler
MID Matt Brash
MID-Penn Murfee
MID Matt Festa
MID Luke Weaver
Potential Lineup #2: $17oM (Most Likely)
CF: Julio Rodriguez (.295, 32 HR, 90 RBI)
1B: Ty France (.282; 22 HR; 80 RBI)
3B: Eugenio Suarez (.234, 33 HR, 91 RBI)
LF: Teoscar Hernandez (.280, 25 HR, 82 RBI)
RF: Hunter Renfroe (.276, 27 HR, 84 RBI)
2B: Wong (.253, 16 HR, 55 RBI)
C: Cal Raleigh (.215, 28 HR, 77 RBI)
DH: Jarred Kellenic (.251, 18 HR, 64 RBI)
2B: J.P. Crawford (.265, 8 HR, 48 RBI)
Potential Lineup #3: $165M
CF: Julio Rodriguez (.295, 32 HR, 95 RBI)
SS: Xander (.305, 18 HR, 80 RBI)
DH: Jose Abreu (.306, 16 HR, 72 RBI)
3B: Eugenio Suarez (.234, 33 HR, 91 RBI)
RF: Teoscar Hernandez (.280, 25 HR, 82 RBI)
1B: Ty France (.282; 22 HR; 80 RBI)
C: Cal Raleigh (.215, 28 HR, 77 RBI)
LF: Jarred Kellenic (.251, 18 HR, 64 RBI)
2B: J.P. Crawford (.265, 8 HR, 48 RBI)
What could the future 2026 Roster for the Mariners look like?
Projected Lineup:
C: Cal Raleigh
DH: Harry Ford (2025)
1B: Ty France
2B: Trea Turner
3B: Tyler Locklear (2026)
SS: Cole Young (2026)
LF: Jarred Kellenic
CF: Julio Rodriguez
RF: Gabriel Gonzalez (2025)
Future Rotation in 2027:
SP: George Kirby
SP: Luis Castillo
SP: Emerson Hancock (2023)
SP: Logan Gilbert
SP: Bryce Miller (2024)
We have a young core of players who will make their debut in 2025-2026 to replace expiring contracts (the second 4-year window).
2025
OF: Gabriel Gonzalez (replacing Renfroe/Teoscar)
DH: Harry Ford
2026
SS: Cole Young (replacing JP)
3B: Tyler Locklear (replacing Eugenio)
Expanding multiple revenue streams and elevating the overall fan experience!
"I'm incredibly excited to be starting as the president of business operations for the Seattle Mariners, this is a team on the rise, Seattle is a an incredible city full of amazing sports fan".
"When it comes to fans, I'm here to listen, I'm here to learn, I want to know what you like, I want. to know what you don't like. I want. to know what it takes to make the Seattle Mariners the single best experience in the city of Seattle."
- President of Business Operations Catie Griggs
With Catie Griggs at the helm and over $100 million committed to stadium upgrades, the addition of premium seating, the all-star game in 2023, and the potential development of an entertainment district with bars and restaurants as an extension to the stadium experience (via real estate holdings) will eventually pave the path to $400 million in annual revenue.
The Mariner's signed a 23-year lease to repurpose the former Pyramid Brewery, and this is an ideal opportunity to expand corporate partnerships (Amazon, Microsoft, and Boeing) and accommodate company functions with up to 800 attendees for pre-game activities and T-Mobile tickets.
This event space itself can generate an additional 32K fans each season if the team sells out 50% of its 40 games. In addition, teams receive on average more than $110 million through revenue sharing.
The Walk-Off Market,” and partnership with Amazon provides Fans a frictionless shopping experience, with the ability to skip lines and save time.
The Mariners own 60% of Root Sports, which broadcasts the Mariners, Seahawks, Kraken, Trailblazers, Jazz, and Golden Knights, but they do not capitalize on revenue generation through this channel as they should and must have a media revenue generation plan to capitalize on new partner channels.
This is an area where the Mariners overall as an organization have been subpar, and where Catie's background with Turner Sports, expertise with media rights, and ability to form strategic partnerships with local, regional, and national sponsors, including but not limited to television, online, and radio advertising and buying, come into play, and why she's the missing bat in the Mariners' front office to drive home the winning run, e.g., the top 5 in MLB attendance by 2025!
If the M's truly want to surpass $500 million and elevate the fan experience, they should pay close attention to the new developments around Angel's Stadium, set to launch by 2024, called OcVibe.
My conclusion......
Data shows us that when a mid-market team has a core foundation of a minimum of five players and makes a big splash via trade or free agency the following year, teams like SD and ATL catapult from league average in attendance to the top five in the MLB the following years.
To be honest, prior to putting together this model, I had little confidence the Mariners could even fathom a $180 million to $200 million payroll for a mid-market team.
However, after crunching the numbers based on the payroll model and conservative revenue projections for the organization, the unit economics make sense, and I'm confident Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander have the green light from ownership to close the deal this off-season if there's expressed interest from Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Boergarts, or Dansby Swanson.
Seattle's top-five rotation has a four-year window, with the expectation of cracking the top-10 in offense this year. We have the core players locked in until at least 2026 to make a World Series run. There has been a lot of speculation around whether the Mariners will open up the checkbook this off-season to upgrade positions where we were most vulnerable last season.
Seattle shows up and cheers for their sports teams, especially if ownership is willing to invest in and produce competitive teams. The Seattle Sounders finished third in MLS league attendance in 2022, and we all know about the Seattle Seahawks' loyal 12th man fan base and the impact they have at Lumen Field.
We are only a few key pieces away from being a major problem in the league next year! Excitement is in the air, energy is in the city, expectations are high, and the time is now, Mariners.
Show me the MONEY, JERRY! Invest in the future today and Mariners fans will show up in full support every game at T-Mobile for years to come and pave that path to $400M in revenue with a $200M championship payroll.
-On behalf of Loyal Seattle Fans
Written by Vinh Le
CEO | Restaurant CEO Consulting Agency
www.restaurantceo.io
Comments